Nuclear war, the black swan we can never see

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Several centuries ago in England, the black swan was a popular symbol for the impossible because no such creature had ever been seen. Then came the surprise: Black swans were discovered in Australia. Since then, the bird has symbolized that which seems impossible but can in fact occur. The black swan reminds us that believing something cannot happen is often just a failure of imagination.

Parts of society today hold the same view of nuclear war that society in England did of black swans centuries ago: No nuclear war has ever been observed, so it may seem impossible that one would occur.

Though nations possess some 16,000 nuclear warheads, deterrence just seems to work. And so, especially with the Cold War a fading memory, attention has shifted elsewhere.

But it is just as much of a mistake to think that nuclear war couldn't happen now as it was to think that black swans couldn't exist back then.

Much more here http://thebulletin.org/nuclear-war-black-swan-we-can-never-see7821